000
WTPZ43 KNHC 241447
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011
 
THE CENTER OF KENNETH HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED
THAT IT WAS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN NO OTHER RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE THE
CENTER LOCATION. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS OF 35
TO ALMOST 40 KT. GIVEN THE KNOW LOW BIAS OF THIS INSTRUMENT...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 50 KT...USING A BLEND OF DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS AND THE ASCAT DATA.
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT DIAGNOSES LIGHT SHEAR BETWEEN THE
850 AND 200 MB LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW THAT IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
OVER KENNETH...AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS SHEAR ADJUSTMENT PREDICTOR.
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
THEN BECOME STRONGER IN 36-48 HOURS. KENNETH WILL ALSO BE MOVING
OVER SSTS BELOW 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AFTER
THAT. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 3-4 DAYS.
 
KENNETH APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WITH A MOTION
OF 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A WESTWARD
TRACK WHILE IT WEAKENS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED
SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF BOTH THE MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL POSITION AND
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 13.5N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 13.7N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 13.9N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 14.0N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 14.0N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z 14.0N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN