000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240835
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011
 
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
GIVEN THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN NOR THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A RECENT ASCT PASS SUGGESTS
THAT WINDS ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE WEAKER. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN WEAKENING.
 
KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 13.8N 120.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 14.3N 121.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 14.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 14.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA