000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240235
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KENNETH CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...ALTHOUGH AT
A SLOWER PACE THAN SEEN EARLIER TODAY.  A JUST-RECEIVED SSM/I
OVERPASS SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION BY WESTERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 50 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB AND THE WEAKER
AMSU/SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN.  A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR...DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ENCROACHING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WESTWARD TURN AS 
THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER WITH THE
FORWARD SPEED...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW TRACK FORECAST.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH ARE LIKELY TO TURN
NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORMING
NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 13.5N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 14.0N 120.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 14.7N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 14.9N 126.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 15.0N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN