000
WTPZ43 KNHC 232035
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TODAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS RECENTLY BECOME
EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A 1702 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED
WINDS WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.  KENNETH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
AND COOLER SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
KENNETH HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
285/10.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 13.2N 118.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 13.7N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 14.2N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 14.6N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 14.8N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN