000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231438
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT NOAA-18 AMSU-B
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BOTH
SHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS INDUCED A MORE
ASYMMETRIC PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. AS A RESULT...A
COMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS
LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT. WEAKENING OF KENNETH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS AND
MOVES WITHIN A MORE STABLE/DRIER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HR AND DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS...SIMILAR TO
THE VARIABLE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST...275/8.
KENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HR CAUSING KENNETH TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
BEYOND THE 48 HR PERIOD...SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
INDUCE A TURN BACK TO TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SOUTH OR
TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODEL AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 12.6N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 13.1N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 13.8N 120.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 14.3N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 14.6N 124.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 16.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN