000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230243 TCDEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 700 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011 KENNETH HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A RECENT SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWS THE EYEWALL OPENING UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE ONSET OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS SHOWN IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 115 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING KENNETH. IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY WITH A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE PASSING NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CAUSE KENNETH TO TURN WESTWARD. FINALLY...YET ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LIKELY TO ALLOW KENNETH OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER BASED ON AN OVERALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE KENNETH TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HR AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE THINGS COULD HAPPEN SOONER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 12.5N 115.6W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 12.8N 117.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 13.6N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 14.8N 121.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 15.0N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 15.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN