000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222038 TCDEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 100 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011 KENNETH IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE VERY CLEAR 20 N MI WIDE EYE IS STILL SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CLOUD TOPS...ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 125 KT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AND KENNETH IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11 KT. KENNETH SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF POLEWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HOW DEEP VERTICALLY THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE HURRICANE. THE HWRF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 24-48 HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEP KENNETH ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.6N 114.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 12.8N 116.3W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.4N 118.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.1N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 14.7N 120.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.5N 123.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 15.7N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z 16.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN