000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220844
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011
 
KENNETH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. THE EYE HAS WARMED AND
BECOME MORE DISTINCT DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSOLIDATED AND GAINED
SYMMETRY...AND KENNETH NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A COMPACT MATURE
HURRICANE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC WERE 90 KT AND 102 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...RECENT ADT VALUES AND A
SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB REVEAL HIGHER ESTIMATES.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 110 KT...AND THAT
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. THIS MAKES KENNETH A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE
LATEST ONE TO HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE
SATELLITE ERA.

SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS KENNETH REMAINS
IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS OF ABOUT
27-28C. HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BEYOND
24 HOURS AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...FALLING BELOW 26.5C IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND TO NEAR 25C IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AS NONE OF THE MODELS ANTICIPATED THE
OBSERVED RATE OF INTENSIFICATION...AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

KENNETH IS MOVING DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A
WESTWARD TRACK FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. A TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS DUE TO
THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH
AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING DEPTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 13.0N 112.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 13.0N 114.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 13.2N 116.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.6N 117.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.2N 119.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 15.1N 122.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 15.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 16.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI