000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212038 TCDEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 100 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011 THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY. THE LARGE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER THIS MORNING HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH AN EMBEDDED RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 75 KT...BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW KENNETH ATTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT COULD OCCUR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. AFTER 24 HOURS...GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAKENING SHOULD BE MORE RAPID AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND KENNETH MOVES OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KENNETH WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN 2-3 DAYS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THAT TIME FRAME AS THE MODELS WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER CYCLONE SHOW A MORE POLEWARD MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF WHICH INITIALIZED KENNETH UNREALISTICALLY WEAK...IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD TRACK OF A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE. SINCE KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME A DEEPER CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SOLUTION. SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE SATELLITE ERA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.0N 110.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 13.1N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 13.5N 116.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 15.1N 120.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN