000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211439 TCDEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 700 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED COILED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT A RAGGED EYE IS FORMING...AND A 1141 UTC SSMIS SHOWS A NEARLY LOW-LEVEL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS FURTHER INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 70 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 285/12. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TRACK OF KENNETH BENDING MORE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN 2-3 DAYS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GREATER POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH/VERTICAL DEPTH OF KENNETH BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER CYCLONE AND THE ECMWF DEPICTING A WEAKER VERSION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN ADJUSTED A BIT SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING TO WEIGH THE ECMWF MORE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS ALREADY EXITED THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE BASIN...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BARRING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INNER CORE...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO. SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THIS TIME AS THE WATERS GRADUALLY COOL ALONG ITS PATH. A FASTER WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE THAN INDICATED HERE...IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD ONCE KENNETH REACHES WATERS OF 25-26C AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL/FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT AFTER THAT. SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN SATELLITE ERA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 12.7N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 12.9N 111.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 13.0N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 13.4N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 15.2N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 15.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN