000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210239
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MARKED BY INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
NEAR THE CENTER AND AN EXPANDING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CANOPY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE
OBJECTIVE ADT FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...AND THAT
IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...AND
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT MOST
OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS CAUGHT UP IN ITS CIRCULATION.  OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW THE FASTEST RATES
OF INTENSIFICATION AND BRING KENNETH TO HURRICANE STATUS IN 24 TO
36 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE
TO A HURRICANE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW DEPICTS THIS
OCCURRING IN 36 HOURS.  KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO REACH WATERS COOLER
THAN 26.5C AND DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME.  THE NHC INTENSITY IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT LIES AT THE LOWER END
OF THE GUIDANCE CLOSE TO THE LGEM SOLUTION.  IT IS THEREFORE
POSSIBLE THAT KENNETH COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED.
 
THE CENTER OF KENNETH APPEARED TO JUMP OR RE-FORM TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE ESTIMATED MOTION OF 290 DEGREES AT
12 KT MAY BE STABILIZING NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER.  THE STORM IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS
FROM DAY 3 AND BEYOND...HOWEVER.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF SHOW A
DEEPER CYCLONE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ON
WEDNESDAY.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...WEAKEN
KENNETH SOONER...AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE
ON THE STORM.  SINCE THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS KENNETH STRENGTHENING A
LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE NORTHWARD-TURNING MODELS BUT NOT YET MAKE A FULL
COMMITMENT.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST ENDS UP NORTH OF AND A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 12.2N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 12.6N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 12.9N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 12.9N 113.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 13.1N 115.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 15.5N 122.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG