000 WTPZ43 KNHC 202100 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 100 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011 CORRECTED FOR MISSING WORD IN FIRST LINE OF SECOND PARAGRAPH ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD COVERS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SHIP LAZS2...LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. BASED UPON THE SHIP REPORT AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH. ALTHOUGH KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... INTENSIFICATION MAY BE LIMITED BY NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC EFFECTS. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE INGESTING RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE NORTH WHICH COULD ALREADY BE AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH. KENNETH WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE BASIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AND ENTERING A REGION WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND IS LOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT THE LONGER RANGE. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF CENTER FIXES YIELDS A MOTION OF 290/10. IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE NEW LONGER-TERM MOTION REPRESENTS A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR A CHANGE OF HEADING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THIS TIME WILL LARGELY HINGE ON THE POTENCY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE SUBSEQUENT EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS DEPICT A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT KENNETH WILL BE WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION. KENNETH BECOMES THE LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE FORMED ON 4 DECEMBER 1983. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 11.5N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 12.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 12.3N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 12.5N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 12.5N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 13.1N 118.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 14.1N 121.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 14.8N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN