000
WTPZ43 KNHC 312040
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082011
200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2011
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INLAND AROUND 1600 UTC ABOUT 30
NMI WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME ELONGATED...AND THERE IS SOME
CHANCE THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING DETACHED. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
WEAKENING APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN NOW THAT MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
FURTHER DISRUPTED AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION...340/06...IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION LIKELY BEING
STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
 
LINGERING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...IN
COMBINATION WITH THE STEEP TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO STILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 18.5N 102.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  01/0600Z 19.2N 103.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN