000 WTPZ43 KNHC 311452 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082011 800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011 MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT T2.5...SUGGESTING THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO LAND SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST IN THE WATCH AREA TODAY. ONCE INLAND...THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...320/06...SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION AND ULTIMATELY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY COURSE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. HOWEVER... THE LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION SEEMS SLIM SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER RUGGED TERRAIN LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEFORE THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND. THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD...IN COMBINATION WITH THE STEEP TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 18.0N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.7N 103.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 19.7N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 20.7N 105.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 21.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH