000
WTPZ43 KNHC 082038
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011
 
ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT AS LARGE AS IT WAS ONE OR TWO
HOURS AGO...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS MICROWAVE DATA
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. BASED ON THE CURRENT
CLOUD PATTERN AND THE INCREASE IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SINCE THIS
MORNING...CALVIN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN. IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY AND ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR
CALVIN TO WEAKEN.
 
CALVIN HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR
275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...CALVIN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WHICH WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN TO MEANDER EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING CALVIN ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BUT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...BY THEN CALVIN
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 16.3N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.4N 110.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 18.0N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 19.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 082038
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011
 
ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT AS LARGE AS IT WAS ONE OR TWO
HOURS AGO...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS MICROWAVE DATA
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. BASED ON THE CURRENT
CLOUD PATTERN AND THE INCREASE IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SINCE THIS
MORNING...CALVIN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN. IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY AND ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR
CALVIN TO WEAKEN.
 
CALVIN HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR
275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...CALVIN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WHICH WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN TO MEANDER EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING CALVIN ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BUT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...BY THEN CALVIN
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 16.3N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.4N 110.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 18.0N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 19.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA