000 WTPZ43 KNHC 081459 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011 THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF CALVIN HAS IMPROVED AS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS EVIDENT FROM BOTH THE 1136Z SSMI IMAGERY AND THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING. THE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS A 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS A 3.7...OR 59 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. WITH IMPROVED SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. CALVIN HAS A LIMITED TIME FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AS IT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE COOL SSTS AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SO DESPITE THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER 24 HOURS. CALVIN HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ABOUT 15 KT...PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...CALVIN SHOULD SLOW AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AFTER TWO DAYS...THE DECAYING CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE GFDN MODEL...WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD POSITION THAN ANTICIPATED AT THE INITIAL TIME. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED UPON A CIRA ANALYSIS OF THE 0933Z AMSU PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.2N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.7N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 18.3N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 081459 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011 THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF CALVIN HAS IMPROVED AS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS EVIDENT FROM BOTH THE 1136Z SSMI IMAGERY AND THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING. THE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS A 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS A 3.7...OR 59 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. WITH IMPROVED SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. CALVIN HAS A LIMITED TIME FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AS IT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE COOL SSTS AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SO DESPITE THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER 24 HOURS. CALVIN HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ABOUT 15 KT...PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...CALVIN SHOULD SLOW AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AFTER TWO DAYS...THE DECAYING CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE GFDN MODEL...WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD POSITION THAN ANTICIPATED AT THE INITIAL TIME. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED UPON A CIRA ANALYSIS OF THE 0933Z AMSU PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.2N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.7N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 18.3N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA