000
WTPZ43 KNHC 072035
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW LOCATED NEAR
OR UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH...WEST...AND NORTH. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THE
RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE APPROACHING  TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER T-NUMBERS TO UPGRADE THE
SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN
SOME BEFORE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD WATER SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.    

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING
A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT INDICATED BY THE
GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR...THE LATEST CONSENSUS SHOWS A MORE NORTHWEST 
TRACK IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW OVER COLD WATERS BY
THEN...AND MOST LIKELY WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 15.4N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 16.0N 104.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 16.8N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 17.5N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 072035
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW LOCATED NEAR
OR UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH...WEST...AND NORTH. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THE
RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE APPROACHING  TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER T-NUMBERS TO UPGRADE THE
SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN
SOME BEFORE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD WATER SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.    

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING
A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT INDICATED BY THE
GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR...THE LATEST CONSENSUS SHOWS A MORE NORTHWEST 
TRACK IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW OVER COLD WATERS BY
THEN...AND MOST LIKELY WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 15.4N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 16.0N 104.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 16.8N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 17.5N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA