000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071437 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011 800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2011 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER IN TWO DAYS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/11. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.3N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071437 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011 800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2011 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER IN TWO DAYS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/11. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.3N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA