000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030229
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 02 2009
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE
CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA.  MOST OF THE THUDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO A FEW CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE
OUTFLOW IS NOT UNIDIRECTIONAL YET. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND THE FACT THAT OLAF IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
AND EMBEDDED IN INCREASING SHEAR...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. OLAF IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A
WEAKENING DEPRESSION OR EVEN AS A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.
 
OLAF HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY MOVE A WEAKENING OLAF
NORTHEASTWARD.
 
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 24.5N 116.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N 113.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA