000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021432 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 02 2009 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 1008 UTC AQUA-1/AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM THE NRL TC WEBSITE INDICATE THAT OLAF IS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY TILTED TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND SURFACE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST SEMICIRCLES. SHIP 3FXY2...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... REPORTED A 37-KT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND AT 1200 UTC. BASED ON THE SHIP REPORT AND A BLEND OF THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND OLAF SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS BASED ON THE SHIPS AND LGEM...SHOWING DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 2 DAYS. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AND AN EARLIER SSMIS IMAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. OLAF SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD BRING THE REMNANTS OF OLAF OVER THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 117.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.2N 115.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 27.1N 113.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN