000
WTPZ43 KNHC 020231
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009
800 PM PDT THU OCT 01 2009
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF OLAF HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND MORE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED IN THE LARGE
CIRCULATION AND PROBABLY HAS REFORMED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST
OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST
EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS. OLAF HAS SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...12 TO 24 HOURS...TO
STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS. THEREAFTER...OLAF SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
48 TO 72 HOURS. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INTENSIFY OLAF ABOVE
45 KNOTS.
 
GIVEN THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. OLAF IS
ALREADY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
SOON WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS INDICATED.
THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH
TURNS OLAF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A DAY OR SO. ONLY THE UK MODEL
MOVES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IF OLAF BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW SOONER
THAN EXPECTED...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 20.7N 117.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 21.2N 118.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 22.0N 118.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 23.5N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 25.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA