000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040833
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JIMENA IS SHEARING APART THIS
MORNING.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW
15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER JIMENA...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE
SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST...LEAVING A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  WHILE THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM THE
CYCLONE CORE...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND JIMENA
IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT...130/2.  JIMENA IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
 
WHILE THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 27.4N 111.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 27.3N 111.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 27.0N 112.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 26.8N 112.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 26.6N 113.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN