000
WTPZ43 KNHC 031432
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

MICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER
OF JIMENA THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED
EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER
CONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A
GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS.  

STRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME
WEAK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND BAM SHALLOW. 

THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE