000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030852
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009
 
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JIMENA HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
OVER LAND...THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL FROM A TIMELY 0516 UTC TRMM OVERPASS
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND IS
LOCATED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ALL THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.  A 0415
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE COULD BE WINDS TO 50 KT
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE SCATTEROMETER DOES NOT PROVIDE DATA. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 50 KT.  INTERACTION
WITH LAND AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
JIMENA FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY
MOVE OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE DAY...RE-STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY.

CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF JIMENA IS MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/6.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CESSATION OF THIS NORTHWARD MOTION LATER TODAY
WITH JIMENA PREDICTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND MOVE BACK INLAND
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE REMNANT LOW OF JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION
ANTICIPATED BY 96 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 27.7N 112.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 28.2N 112.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 113.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 27.8N 113.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.3N 114.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER
 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG