000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030247
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
 
WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OF
JIMENA...LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF JIMENA IS DECOUPLING FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST...THEN WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER
24 HOURS.
 
JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND COOL WATER TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 24-36 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.  IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA WILL WEAKEN AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
 
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 27.0N 112.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 27.9N 112.8W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 113.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 114.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 27.9N 114.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 27.7N 115.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 27.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN