000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022039 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 200 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009 THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 75-80 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER INLAND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HR BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE TRACK ARE COLD...AND THE FORECAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HR. THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36-48 HR...AND A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR. THERE IS A CHANCE THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BUT IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY THERE LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY OF JIMENA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JIMENA SHOULD DECELERATE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE BULK OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES JIMENA SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC...A MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NUDGED A LITTLE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 26.4N 112.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 27.4N 112.7W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1800Z 28.1N 113.3W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 114.2W 35 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 04/1800Z 28.1N 114.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN