000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310325 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009 CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES THE STRUCTURE OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND TOPS WITHIN THE CDO HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB AT 0000 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN NEAR 6.5 FOR SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE INCREASING TREND IN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 125 KT. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS JIMENA WILL BE IN AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...IF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS IT WOULD LIKELY HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. GIVEN THE LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE INNER-CORE CHANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT-TERM. AROUND 48 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE JIMENA TO WEAKEN. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK...AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND...INTRODUCES ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. JIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/06...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JIMENA AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N 112W WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT IT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL JIMENA NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN WEAKEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TURN JIMENA TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION 1800 UTC GFS PARALLEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK SCENARIO...WHILE THE 1200 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD NORTH OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...SUGGESTING THAT A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE A TRACK CLOSER TO BAJA. THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE EASTWARD SCENARIO...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH IS REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT ANY INDIVIDUAL POINT LOCATION OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LORETO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.0N 107.2W 125 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 130 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 19.2N 109.1W 130 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 21.3N 110.2W 125 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 111.0W 120 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 27.0N 112.5W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 04/0000Z 28.6N 113.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN