000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291247
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
600 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
 
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF JIMENA. EXTREMELY DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER OF THE STORM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. A 0844 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT JIMENA HAD
DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE. IN ADDITION...A WARM SPOT IS NOW APPARENT ON
CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60
KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THE TAFB/SAB CLASSIFICATIONS...AND IF THE EYE
PERSISTS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HURRICANE IN SHORT ORDER. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS...WHICH ALL SHOW VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...OR SOONER. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1300Z 14.2N 102.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.4N 103.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.9N 104.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.4N 106.1W    90 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 16.4N 107.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 25.5N 114.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE