000
WTPZ43 KNHC 072032
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009
 
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT FELICIA REMAINS A RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED
HURRICANE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND IMPRESSIVE SPIRAL BANDING.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 1649 SSMIS PASS SHOW THAT THE
EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER WITH ONLY ABOUT 50
PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE KEPT AT
85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...INITIALLY DUE TO COOL WATERS...THEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SSTS AND INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT CONTINUES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT
290/12.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
SHOULD FORCE A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER
RANGE WITH THE GFS/NOGAPS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET/GFDL/HWRF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE.  THE
AFTERNOON MODEL CONSENSUS LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST...AND WITH NO CLEAR SIGNALS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION TO
PREFER...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 18.3N 136.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 18.8N 138.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 19.3N 141.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N 143.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N 146.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 152.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 157.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE