000
WTPZ43 KNHC 060843
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009
 
FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY.  THE EYE HAS BEEN
WARMING AND HAS BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE ALSO
BEEN WARMING.  FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO...
AND THIS ADVISORY MAINTAINS 120-KT AS THE INTENSITY.  FELICIA MAY
HAVE PEAKED NEAR 125 KT AROUND 0200-0300 UTC WHEN A WHITE RING
COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE EYE ON THE DVORAK BD ENHANCEMENT CURVE.
 
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
300 DEGREES AT 9 KT.  FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE HURRICANE
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE RETREATS FARTHER EAST OVER MEXICO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND
THEN WEST BY DAYS 2 AND 3.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLUTIONS.
FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS
IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
 
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
FELICIA REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 26C AND HEADING
TOWARD INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.  ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH
WEAKER VORTEX AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND
THE SHIPS MODEL EVEN DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME.  ONLY THE
HWRF AND GFDL STILL HAVE THE CYCLONE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON
DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BY NOT INDICATING
DISSIPATION BUT WEAKENING FELICIA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 15.5N 131.2W   120 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.2N 132.3W   115 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.4N 133.9W   105 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N 135.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.4N 138.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 143.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.0N 148.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N 154.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG