000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060253 TCDEP3 HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009 FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. JUST-RECEIVED AMSU DATA SHOWS THAT FELICIA HAS A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. FELICIA...AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE TO ITS NORTHEAST...ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N148W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN 140W-156W. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH AND WEST OF FELICIA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW NEAR AND EAST OF HAWAII AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECASTING FELICIA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. AFTER 72 HR...THE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NEAR FELICIA...WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE COULD SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CARRIED WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 72 HR AND A LITTLE SLOWER. IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE FELICIA MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HR AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL TO NEAR 24C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR...AS THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREEING WELL IN FORECASTING FELICIA TO SHEAR APART DURING THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.9N 130.5W 120 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W 120 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W 110 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W 85 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN