000
WTPZ43 KNHC 052038
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC FROM TAFB AND
SAB REMAINED AT T6.0 AND T5.0... RESPECTIVELY... WHILE 
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLES AROUND A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THEREFORE... RAISED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY A LITTLE FURTHER TO 110 KT WHILE DECREASING THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 940 MB.
 
AGAIN... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THE INITIAL HEADING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF FELICIA REMAINS IN PLACE.  A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED BY
DAYS 3 AND BEYOND AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES AND IS REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY
CENTERED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR... FELICIA
WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT POINT AND WILL BECOME MORE
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  FOLLOWING A
REASONABLY TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
 
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR THE STORM TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE OVER THE
NEXT DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
CALIFORNIA IS INDUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL THE NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK OF THE STORM TAKES THE CENTER OVER COOLER WATERS.  THIS
DECREASE IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND A FORECAST INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING DAYS 3 THROUGH
5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 14.5N 129.7W   110 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.2N 130.9W   115 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 132.4W   110 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 17.8N 134.0W   105 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 136.1W    95 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 20.2N 140.9W    70 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 146.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 20.2N 152.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PEREIRA