000
WTPZ43 KNHC 051443
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
 
BASED UPON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND
SAB OF T6.0 AND T5.0...RESPECTIVELY... AND A PERSISTENT EYE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS AT 100 KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THE INITIAL HEADING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH REMAINS IN
PLACE.  A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES AND IS
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FELICIA WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT POINT AND
WILL BECOME MORE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE
WINDS.  FOLLOWING THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR
THIS PACKAGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
SHIFT AS WELL.
 
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR THE STORM TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA IS INDUCING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. 
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
36 HOURS UNTIL THE CONTINUED NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST
PUTS FELICIA OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 14.1N 128.7W   100 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W   105 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W   105 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.4N 133.2W   100 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 18.3N 135.3W    95 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 19.9N 140.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 145.3W    65 KT
120HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N 150.9W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PEREIRA