000
WTPZ43 KNHC 042033
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE
AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
1800 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT BUT SINCE THAT TIME... THE
EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT...MAKING FELICIA THE THIRD HURRICANE
OF THE 2009 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IN A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE TODAY...AND
WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING...THE QUESTION IS: HOW STRONG WILL IT GET? THE
PRESENCE OF AN EYE ON BOTH THE 85 AND 37 GHZ CHANNELS OF A 1547 UTC
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS MORE STRENGTHENING...EVEN A
CONTINUATION OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO FORECASTS A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...ABOUT 8 TIMES THE SAMPLE
MEAN. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN ON SHIPS AND THE MICROWAVE DATA TO
FORECAST RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LEVEL
OFF THE WINDS THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS. IN THE LONGER-TERM...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR MAY
ALSO HELP TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.
 
FELICIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...280/12. A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DUE TO A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FELICIA TO MOVE
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENRIQUE TO CAUSE FURTHER RIDGE WEAKENING...
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF
FELICIA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THE UKMET/NOGAPS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NONE. FOR
NOW...I'M GOING TO LEAN ON THE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES JUST SOUTH
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 12.4N 126.6W    70 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 13.0N 128.3W    85 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.9N 130.1W    95 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.7N 131.7W   100 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 133.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 142.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 148.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE