000
WTPZ43 KNHC 041647
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REVISE THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF FELICIA.  A 1327 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS RECEIVED JUST
AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE.  IN ADDITION...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HINTS OF AN EYE.  SPECIAL
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS
NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60
KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.  
 
THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS CENTERED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1700Z 12.3N 125.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 12.8N 126.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 13.8N 128.8W    75 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 14.6N 130.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 15.3N 132.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N 135.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N 147.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH