000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041435 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM FELICIA...THE SIXTH STORM OF THE SEASON. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A PROMINENT BANDING FEATURE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB/CIMSS ARE BETWEEN 35-45 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 40 KT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FELICIA REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR FROM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE AND COOLER WATERS COULD LIMIT ANY FUTURE STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LINE WITH THE SHIPS/HWRF/LGEM MODELS IN MAKING THIS STORM A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. FELICIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT ABOUT 295/12...THOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT COULD BE MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO STEERED BY RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERD ON A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF ENRIQUE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN SHOWING ENRIQUE PINWHEELING AROUND FELICIA. WHILE THAT SITUATION IS NOT CONSIDERED LIKELY AT THIS TIME...IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE AT LONGER-RANGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 12.7N 124.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 13.5N 126.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 14.4N 128.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 15.3N 130.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 16.1N 131.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 147.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE