000
WTPZ43 KNHC 082031
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009
200 PM PDT WED JUL 08 2009
 
RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF BLANCA...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS
SUFFICIENT CONVECTION TO WARRANT A DATA T-NUMBER USING THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE.  WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES ON THIS MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  A 1326 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS STILL INDICATED 25
TO 30 KT WINDS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN SINCE THEN AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT.  UNLESS THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION...BLANCA WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...BLANCA
SHOULD BE STEERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 21.2N 121.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 22.0N 123.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA/PASCH