000
WTPZ43 KNHC 042038
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008
100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008
 
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO A BAND EAST OF
THE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED
ON 1800 UTC DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  GOES CLOUD TRACK
WINDS SHOW STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD POLO...SUGGESTING THAT ANY
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POLO TO STRENGTHEN WILL CLOSE SOON.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH POLO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD STEADY THROUGH 48 HOURS...AS THE
SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE OVER THE
CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS...WITH A SECOND LARGER INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR TO OCCUR AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BY THAT TIME...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...POLO
COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
 
A JASON ALTIMETER PASS OVER POLO AROUND 1600 UTC WAS USEFUL IN
ANALYZING THE RADIUS OF 12-FOOT SEAS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 10.2N 118.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 10.6N 120.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 11.2N 121.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 11.8N 123.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 12.3N 125.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 13.0N 128.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 13.5N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH