000
WTPZ43 KNHC 022055
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008
100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008
 
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  SOME WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE FORMED IN THE CENTRAL REGION
OF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
WARRANTS ITS DESIGNATION AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE IS
STILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BUT THERE IS
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA AND WATER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 28 DEG C FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHIPS AND THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  BY DAYS 4-5...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING
BY THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 280/13.  THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER BAM...TURN THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  SUCH A TRACK MIGHT MATERIALIZE IF THE CYCLONE
WERE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT DEPICT MUCH
STRENGTHENING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z  8.6N 109.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z  8.7N 111.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z  9.0N 113.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z  9.5N 115.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 10.2N 116.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 11.5N 119.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 12.5N 122.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH