000
WTPZ43 KNHC 112034
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2008
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LOWELL'S
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT A SECOND MID-LEVEL
OR LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE LOCATED FARTHER UP THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 26.5N 109.5W. THIS ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
LOWELL IS QUICKLY LOSING STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE ADVISORY IS BEING HELD LOWER AT 25 KT DUE TO
THE LINEAR/SQUALL LINE APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND MOVE
INLAND OVER THE STATE OF SINALOA IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS MODELS.
 
RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 6 HORUS OR SO ONCE LOWELL
MOVES INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL REMAIN A
THREAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 24.9N 108.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 26.5N 108.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 24HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART