000
WTPZ43 KNHC 110847
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2008
 
IT APPEARS THAT LOWELL HAS DECOUPLED THIS MORNING.  THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CENTER AND REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOVING
INTO MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 25 KT.  LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS DISCONTINUED.
 
QUIKSCAT DATA AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO MAINLAND
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SINCE LOWELL IS QUICKLY
BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AND THE SHALLOW BAM TRACK.  THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 23.3N 110.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W    25 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 26.2N 108.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 36HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN