000
WTPZ43 KNHC 091448
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.   LOWELL IS ENCOUNTERING
A LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THERE IS SOME STABLE AIR TO ITS
NORTHWEST.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THUS FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE
DECAY SHIPS MODEL.  IF LOWELL CANNOT GENERATE NEW CONVECTION...
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...WHATS
LEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING.  FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH
96 HOURS FOR CONTINUITY...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE CYCLONE CAN
SURVIVE THAT LONG.
 
FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CYCLONE IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING THE CYCLONE...OR ITS
REMNANTS...OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 21.0N 113.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 22.4N 113.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 24.7N 111.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 26.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 29.0N 110.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME