000
WTPZ43 KNHC 262032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE WHILE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE MID-
AND LOW- LEVEL CENTER ARE BECOMING DECOUPLED. EARLIER QUIKSCAT
INDICATE THAT WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS AND SO DOES THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45
KNOTS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SURROUNDED BY STABLE AIR.
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT
LOW IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.
 
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS GUIDANCE IS IN LESS
AGREEMENT BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW MOVING
WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 17.3N 121.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 125.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     31/1800Z 19.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA