000
WTPZ43 KNHC 252039
TCDEP3
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008

HINTS OF AN EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON...NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A FAIRLY ROUND BUT SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. 
THE SYSTEM PROBABLY HAS LESS THAN A DAY TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR.  GENEVIEVE IS LIKELY
TO LOSE CONVECTION RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ABOUT THREE TO FOUR DAYS
WHEN THE VERY SMALL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER COLD WATERS AND EXPERIENCING
MODERATE SHEAR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS BEFORE AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MOVING AT A RATHER CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11. THIS
GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
GFDL AND HWRF SHOW A BIT LESS RIDGING THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND ARE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST NORTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A WESTWARD TRACK IS PROBABLE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION AND IS STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  

QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL AND THE WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 16.8N 116.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.2N 118.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.8N 120.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.4N 122.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 125.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.0N 129.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE