000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251452 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008 A 1130 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GENEVIEVE IS NOW BENEATH THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT A BANDED EYE HAD FORMED. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 4.0...65 KT...FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THUS GENEVIEVE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS...THE FOURTH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THIS FORMATION IS ABOUT TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE MEAN FOURTH HURRICANE DATE OF 10 AUGUST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... AND 2008 ALREADY HAS HAD AS MANY HURRICANES AS THE ENTIRE 2007 SEASON. IT IS PROBABLE THAT GENEVIEVE WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY TODAY AS IT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM WATER. HOWEVER... INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE EAST. THESE CLOUDS HERALD AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WIND SHEAR STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH DECREASING SSTS...THESE EFFECTS SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING OF GENEVIEVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SHIFTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT CHANGES... AND THEN IS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MOTION OF GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED AND IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 285/10. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 11 KT IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. A TOWARD TOWARDS THE WEST IS PROBABLE AROUND THREE DAYS DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.4N 115.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.8N 117.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.4N 119.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 18.1N 121.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE