000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250233
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2008
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO BE
ASYMMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED...AS MOST OF THE COLDEST-TOPPED CLOUDS
ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. 
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  CONCURRENT 85 GHZ AND 37 GHZ SSM/I
IMAGES FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOME
NORTHWARD TILT OF THE CIRCULATION WITH HEIGHT...SUGGESTING
SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES 10 KT OR LESS
OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  PERHAPS
THE GFS...WHICH PROVIDES THE DYNAMICAL INPUT FOR SHIPS... IS
UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES OVER
THE STORM.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST
MUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH...NOR DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IN 36
HOURS OR SO...GENEVIEVE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN
INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE STORM SHOULD MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 15.8N 113.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 115.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.3N 116.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 16.7N 118.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 17.1N 121.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 125.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0000Z 18.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH