000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240240
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT GENEVIEVE IS
STRUGGLING.  HOWEVER...DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  GENEVIEVE HAS CROSSED THE
COOLER WATERS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF FAUSTO AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER
WARMER SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED.  THESE
TRENDS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRIOR TO
SHEAR INCREASING IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING FORECASTS RANGING FROM LITTLE OR
NO STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL
MODELS...TO THE DYNAMICAL HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW
GENEVIEVE REACHING 71 KT AND 82 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  SINCE IT IS NOT
CLEAR WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS IS MORE LIKELY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOWS GENEVIEVE BECOMING A
MINIMAL HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND GENEVIEVE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.
 
GENEVIEVE IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...270/9.  A
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GENEVIEVE SHOULD KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST.  TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 15.0N 111.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N 112.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.3N 113.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 115.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 15.9N 117.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.0N 120.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 124.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 127.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME