000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231433
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
A 0853Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF
GENEVIEVE WAS BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL IRREGULAR
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  A COLD TOP BANDING FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS PERSISTING WHILE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION IS LIMITED...INDICATIVE OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DERIVED FROM THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS WHICH SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN
24 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR
SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
 
A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES WERE QUITE HELPFUL THIS MORNING IN
ESTIMATING THE MOTION...NOW DUE WEST AT 8 KT...WITH A SLIGHT
POSITION ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GENEVIEVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED ON A THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.0N 109.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.1N 110.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.2N 112.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.3N 113.9W    65 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 115.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 118.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N 122.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N 125.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA