000
WTPZ43 KNHC 212047
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
200 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING
FEATURES IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  AN ASCAT MICROWAVE PASS AT
1604 UTC SHOWED 30-35 KT WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5...35
KT.  THUS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
GENEVIEVE AND AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT WILL BE USED.  MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT
SHEAR...AND WITH WATERS THAT ARE PLENTY WARM IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...OR
SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM/GFDL MODELS AND IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  

GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MOVING AT ABOUT 280/15 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
RELATIVELY SOON...PERHAPS DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING A LITTLE DUE
TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO.  THAT TROUGH DOESN'T
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES...SO I'M GOING TO KEEP
THE STORM ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS SPEEDY AS
THE GFS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 13.9N 102.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.1N 104.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 106.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 14.9N 108.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 15.4N 110.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 113.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE