000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300829 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A RATHER SHARP EDGE TO THE HIGH CLOUD MASS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...INDICATIVE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM BORIS LOCATED NOT FAR TO CRISTINA'S EAST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR PATTERN MEASUREMENT ARE YIELDING INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT. HOWEVER THE DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AS WELL AS EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...ARGUE FOR A SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEED. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND A RELATIVELY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THIS IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE SHIPS PREDICTION... AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS INTENSITY FORECAST...ICON. INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 260/9. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN CRISTINA AND BORIS...IN TERMS OF STEERING. THEREFORE THE PRINCIPAL STEERING MECHANISM IS THE EASTERLY CURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A CONTINUED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 14.2N 129.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 13.9N 131.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 13.6N 133.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 13.5N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 141.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/0600Z 13.5N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 05/0600Z 13.5N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH